Statistical Modelling of the Determinants of Fertility Among Women of 15 – 49 Years of Age in Uganda

Babalola Bayowa Teniola and Basigirenda Miriam
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Babalola Bayowa Teniola: Department of Mathematics and Statistics, School of Mathematics and Computing, Kampala International University, Uganda
Basigirenda Miriam: Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science, Ekiti State University, Nigeria.

International Journal of Research and Innovation in Applied Science, 2025, vol. 10, issue 3, 199-213

Abstract: Background: The purpose of this study is to identify the factors associated with fertility among women of reproductive age in Uganda. The study aimed to determine the prevalence of the total fertility rate in Uganda, establish the sociodemographic and economic factors associated with fertility identify reproductive factors associated with fertility, and fit a predictive model for the Total Fertility Rate (TFR). Method: The study utilized secondary data from the 2016 Uganda Demographic and Health Survey (UDHS). The analysis focused on a subset of 13,741 women aged 15 to 49 who had children, excluding those without children. Descriptive statistics were employed to ascertain fertility prevalence, while a multivariate analysis using negative binomial regression was used to identify associated factors. Results: The study found that the average total fertility rate in Uganda is approximately 4 children per woman. Key sociodemographic and economic factors associated with fertility include a woman’s age, education level, marital status, wealth index, and region of residence. The reproductive factors such as age at first sexual intercourse, age at first marriage, and the duration of breastfeeding were significantly associated with fertility rate in Uganda Conclusion: In conclusion, the social demographic, economic, and reproductive factors play a significant role towards fertility rates in Uganda. The study recommends implementing targeted family planning programs for women aged 20 to 49 years. It also suggests strengthening initiatives to increase access to education for girls, particularly in rural areas and expanding access to family planning services for married women, women in partnerships, widows, and those who are divorced or separated

Date: 2025
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