Forecasting the Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 in Selected West African Countries Using ARIMA Model Technique

Musa Ganaka Kubi, Son-Allah Mallaka Philemon and Olope Ganiu Ibrahim
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Musa Ganaka Kubi: Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Federal Polytechnic, Nasarawa, Nasarawa State, Nigeria
Son-Allah Mallaka Philemon: Department of Management & Information Technology, ATBU, Bauchi, Nigeria
Olope Ganiu Ibrahim: Department of Mathematical Sciences, ATBU, Bauchi, Nigeria

International Journal of Research and Innovation in Applied Science, 2020, vol. 5, issue 8, 141-144

Abstract: COVID-19 is a disease caused by the novel coronavirus that was reported in China in 2019. The virus has infected more than a million people globally leading to hundred-thousands of deaths. Hence, forecasting the future confirmed cases to support prevention of the disease and aid in the healthcare service preparation is very important especially in developing countries. In order to support governments’ effort in the prevention of COVID-19, we developed an ARIMA model which was used in forecasting future COVID-19 cases in selected West African Countries. The forecasting results from this study indicates an increase cases in the coming days. It is expected that the present prediction models will assist the government and medical personnel in the selected countries to be prepared for the upcoming conditions and have more readiness in healthcare systems.

Date: 2020
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