Modelling the costs of natural disasters in indonesia: A Monte Carlo simulations

Zidat Rafika and Kafuma Lumu Arafat
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Zidat Rafika: LED research Laboratory University of Bejaia (Algeria)
Kafuma Lumu Arafat: Uganda Bureau of Statistics Enumerator (Uganda)

International Journal of Economic Performance (IJEP), 2025, vol. 8, issue 02, Pages : 127-159

Abstract: This research investigates the economic impact of natural disasters on a national scale and explores how this impact can be reduced through various mitigation and adaptation strategies.Utilizing Indonesia as a case study, probabilistic models and Monte Carlo simulations were employed to predict future losses from earthquakes, floods and wildfires. This methodological approach mirrored risk assessment practices leveraging historical disaster data to accurately reproduce past loss patterns in specific regions. JMP statistical software facilitated the comprehensive analysis, generating robust estimates designed to empower policymakers in implementing effective measures for minimizing economic disruption. The findings and subsequent discussions analyse these strategies to identify various approaches that can be employed to reduce the financial burden imposed by natural disasters.

Keywords: Monte Carlo simulations; Probabilistic Models; Risk Assessment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bjm:ijep00:v:8:y:2025:i:02:id:380

DOI: 10.54241/2065-008-002-008

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