Inflation and Population Age Structure: The Case of Emerging Economies

Darya Antonova () and Yulia Vymyatnina
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Darya Antonova: European University at St. Petersburg

Russian Journal of Money and Finance, 2018, vol. 77, issue 4, 3-25

Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between inflation and population age structure for emerging market economies. We form an unbalanced panel of data for 21 countries for the period 1950-2017 and include a number of additional control variables – terms of trade, exchange rate regime, debt-to-GDP ratio, broad money supply growth rates, and PPP-adjusted GDP per capita index. After estimating a variety of model specifications and robustness checks we conclude that the elderly group (65+) in these sample of countries is deflationary, the young group (0-19) shows weak signs of being deflationary, and the working group (20-64) is found to be inflationary. The deflationary effect of the elderly has been found in some studies for OECD countries, but the findings regarding the young group being deflationary and the working group being inflationary are new. Therefore, the question about the general empirical relation between inflation and the population age structure remains unsettled, and it is probable that the relation between population age structure and other macroeconomic variables is different for emerging market economies and for advanced countries.

Keywords: inflation; population age structure; ageing; emerging market economies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E40 O11 P52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bkr:journl:v:77:y:2018:i:4:p:3-25

DOI: 10.31477/rjmf.201804.03

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