Quarterly Projection Model for the Siberian Macroregion

Igor Savchenko (), Marya Butakova (), Leonid Markov (), Margarita Lyakhnova (), Olga Erushina (), Roman Gartvich (), Maxim Yakovina () and Vasilii Shcherbakov ()
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Igor Savchenko: Bank of Russia
Marya Butakova: Bank of Russia
Leonid Markov: Bank of Russia
Margarita Lyakhnova: Bank of Russia
Olga Erushina: Bank of Russia
Roman Gartvich: Bank of Russia
Maxim Yakovina: Bank of Russia
Vasilii Shcherbakov: Bank of Russia

Russian Journal of Money and Finance, 2024, vol. 83, issue 4, 48-75

Abstract: Russia's regions are characterised by strong heterogeneity of economic conditions, and, accordingly, the regions' reaction to macroeconomic shocks throughout the country, including shocks of the single monetary policy, may be heterogeneous. This paper is devoted to the development of a tool to analyse the economy of the Siberian macroregion, a semistructural model consisting of three blocks: Siberia, the rest of Russia, and the outside world. The main difference between this model and an all-Russian model lies in the different Phillips and aggregate demand curves for Siberia and the rest of Russia. The model takes into account the specifics of Siberia, including the small contribution of the region to the main macroeconomic indicators for Russia, the high share of extractive industries in output, and others. It is shown that the model describes ongoing processes in accordance with economic intuition, which allows it to be used for medium-term forecasting and analysis.

Keywords: semi-structural model; forecast; Siberian macroregion; output gap; Phillips curve; impulse response functions; monetary policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E32 E37 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bkr:journl:v:83:y:2024:i:4:p:48-75

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