Forecasting Non-Oil and Gas Revenues in the Russian Budget

Matvey Finagin () and Sergey Sheremeta ()
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Matvey Finagin: Bank of Russia; HSE University
Sergey Sheremeta: Bank of Russia

Russian Journal of Money and Finance, 2024, vol. 83, issue 4, 76-97

Abstract: This paper examines methods for forecasting non-oil and gas revenues in Russia's budget system in order to construct a model with the smallest forecast error in conditions of the incomplete availability of the necessary data. We use mixed data, error correction, and autoregressive distributed lag models to forecast non-oil and gas revenues at different levels of aggregation: non-oil and gas revenues minus one-time receipts; cross-border and domestic duties; and eight groups of major taxes. The quality of the models is estimated using the root mean square errors of a pseudo out-of-sample forecasts on one- and three-year horizons. The forecasts of the models constructed turn out to be more accurate than the forecasts of the Ministry of Finance of Russia for most forecast periods.

Keywords: budget revenue forecast; non-oil and gas revenues; taxes (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E62 E64 E65 E66 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bkr:journl:v:83:y:2024:i:4:p:76-97

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