A Structural Accounting Framework for Estimating the Expected Rate of Return on Equity

Demetris Christodoulou, Colin Clubb and Stuart McLeay

Abacus, 2016, vol. 52, issue 1, 176-210

Abstract: type="main">

This paper shows how the expected rate of return (ERR) on equity may be estimated using only published accounting results, based on the information dynamics of reported earnings. As accounting-based valuation models conditional upon financial statement articulation lead to a rank deficient system of estimating equations, the paper introduces a nonlinear constraint on the articulation that allows the information system simultaneously to produce an estimate for the ERR by iteration, together with predictions for the key clean surplus forecasts of net earnings, net dividend, and the book value of equity. Further decomposition produces estimates of expected capital gain, expected earnings, and the expected change in equity book value, and by rearrangement, the expected change in unrecorded goodwill. The clean surplus relation is maintained in the forecast variables. Exploratory data methods are used to examine the nonlinear relationship between components of the accounting-based ERR and realized stock returns. Findings show that realized returns are higher (lower) than estimated ERR in expansionary (recessionary) periods, with evidence of a stronger returns impact in recessionary periods. For the large majority of firms, realized returns revert to the estimated ERR, and the time-varying accounting components are strongly related to future realized stock returns, consistent with time variation in the ERR around a long-run average. Predicted earnings and dividends provide useful additional information on short-run variations in the ERR.

Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/abac.12073 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:abacus:v:52:y:2016:i:1:p:176-210

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=0001-3072

Access Statistics for this article

Abacus is currently edited by G.W. Dean and S. Jones

More articles in Abacus from Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().