Disentangling Sentiment from Cyclicality in Firm Capital Structure

Haitham A. Al‐Zoubi, Jennifer A. O'Sullivan, Aktham I. Al‐Maghyereh and Brendan J. Lambe

Abacus, 2023, vol. 59, issue 2, 570-605

Abstract: This study examines the relationship between capital structure choices and investor and managerial sentiment, finding that periods of positive sentiment are associated with reduced leverage within firms. We focus on the cyclicality of leverage using non‐orthogonalized sentiment indices and find a strong negative relationship. Leverage, therefore, appears countercyclical, implying that the decision to take on debt is a consequence of either Admati et al.'s (2018) ratchet effect or a managerial attempt to time the market. Our findings lead us to question some fundamental capital structure theories, namely, trade‐off (Kraus and Litzenberger, 1973), and Hackbarth's (2008) managerial traits theory. Instead, we favour the idea that leverage is a consequence of countercyclical market timing behaviour.

Date: 2023
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