Why Do Analysts use a Zero Forecast for Other Comprehensive Income?

Mark Wallis

Abacus, 2023, vol. 59, issue 4, 1074-1115

Abstract: Accounting theory and accounting researchers stress the importance of clean surplus accounting and comprehensive income to corporate valuation. However, casual observation suggests that sell‐side equity analysts routinely ignore other comprehensive income (OCI) in their forecasts and instead focus on forecasting earnings (before OCI). Using a sample of analyst reports, I first confirm that analysts normally omit forecasts of OCI or comprehensive income from their reports, consistent with analysts forecasting OCI as zero. I then predict and find that a zero forecast for OCI generally produces lower forecasting errors than alternative time‐series models, such as a random walk or AR(1) model, suggesting a rational reason why analysts take this approach. Finally, I predict and find that although analysts’ point forecasts of future OCI are usually zero, their implied cost of equity estimates are consistent with analysts forecasting a positive variance for OCI.

Date: 2023
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