 Efficiency of football betting markets: the economic significance of trading strategiesPhilip Gray, Stephen F. Gray and Timothy Roche Accounting and Finance, 2005, vol. 45, issue 2, 269-281 Abstract: Prior studies of the Australian Rugby League betting market report a degree of predictability well in excess of that attributable to chance. However, two important recent changes in the structure of the market facilitate an unambiguous assessment of the statistical significance of predictability and the economic significance of returns to betting strategies. The present paper reexamines the efficiency of the Australian Rugby League betting market under the revised market structure. In addition, a set of measures of the economic significance of trading strategies are developed and implemented. Relative to prior studies, the out‐of‐sample success of the predictive model has diminished notably under the revised market structure; although a naïve strategy betting on home underdogs still performs significantly better than can be attributed to chance. Simulation experiments suggest that the documented level of predictability from several strategies generates economically significant returns. Date: 2005 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:acctfi:v:45:y:2005:i:2:p:269-281 Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from Access Statistics for this article Accounting and Finance is currently edited by Robert Faff More articles in Accounting and Finance from Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand Contact information at EDIRC. |
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