Run length and the predictability of stock price reversals

Juan Yao, Graham Partington and Max Stevenson

Accounting and Finance, 2005, vol. 45, issue 4, 653-671

Abstract: Survival analysis is used to estimate time‐varying probabilities of price reversals using daily data for the Australian All Ordinaries Price Index. Lagged price changes lead to persistence (shortening) in a price run if they are of the same (opposite) sign as the run. An increase in the number of runs observed in the previous 30 days also increases the probability of price reversal. The predictive accuracy of the models is assessed using a probability scoring rule. Consistent with market efficiency, the estimated models are less accurate than the random walk model in predicting the length of individual price runs out‐of‐sample.

Date: 2005
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-629X.2005.00156.x

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:acctfi:v:45:y:2005:i:4:p:653-671

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=0810-5391

Access Statistics for this article

Accounting and Finance is currently edited by Robert Faff

More articles in Accounting and Finance from Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().