Canal du commerce extérieur, politiques publiques et spécialisation des PED africains: étude empirique

Giscard Assoumou Ella and Cécile Bastidon ()

African Development Review, 2015, vol. 27, issue 2, 171-184

Abstract: Nous proposons un modèle à deux pays : un pays en développement exportateur de matières premières et importateur de produits finis, et une économie avancée. Les tests individuels réalisés sur 16 pays africains entre 1970 et 2007 montrent que la variation des échanges commerciaux de ces pays suite aux chocs de revenu et de prix internationaux provoque celle de leurs revenus, en fonction de leurs spécialisations et de leurs politiques publiques. Les pays de l'échantillon doivent diversifier leurs économies en produisant les biens et services consommés localement afin de réduire leurs niveaux d'exposition. Abstract We propose a two countries model: a developing country that exports raw materials and imports finished products and a developed country. We test this model in 16 African countries between 1970 and 2007 and show that the variation in commercial flows caused by international income and price shocks entails a variation in their incomes, depending on the specialization and public policies. The countries of the sample must diversify their economies in producing goods and services consumed locally in order to reduce their levels of exposure.

Date: 2015
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