Evaluating the belt and road initiative effects on trade and migration: Evidence from the East African community

Koffi Dumor, Yao Li, Ma Yongkai, Enock Mintah Ampaw and Hafez Komla Dumor

African Development Review, 2022, vol. 34, issue 1, 16-28

Abstract: This paper uses the new panel data structural gravity equations to examine the impact of China's Belt and Road Initiative in two dimensions, namely trade and migration on participating countries. By leveraging the Poisson pseudo‐maximum likelihood estimator with fixed‐effects to address both endogeneity and omitted variables, our results highlighted the importance of accounting for the regional economic integration in Africa, Europe, and Asia. The model assesses 65 countries, including 30 sub‐Saharan economies from the period 2000–2018. The findings of our study indicate that migration has a significant impact on the flow of bilateral trade. We also observed that the East African Community regional trade agreements have a significant negative effect on intra‐blocs trade under the Belt and Road Initiative. Therefore, a comprehensive policy agenda needs to be developed to enhance migration and trade‐promoting policies among the participating economies of Africa to engender African growth from a win‐win perspective.

Date: 2022
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https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.12620

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