Economic Implications of AES Countries' Withdrawal From ECOWAS: A Multiregional CGE Model Analysis

Gaël Somé, Patrice Rélouendé Zidouemba, Yaya Koloma, Lacina Balma and Aboubakar Sidiki Cissé

African Development Review, 2026, vol. 38, issue 2

Abstract: This study investigates the economic implications of the withdrawal of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES)—Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger—from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) using a multi‐regional computable general equilibrium model. The results show that reintroducing customs duties on trade with non‐WAEMU ECOWAS countries increases import costs and redirects trade flows toward WAEMU members and global markets. While imports from non‐WAEMU ECOWAS partners decline, domestic demand rises slightly in manufacturing and extractive sectors. Household consumption, income, and investment remain broadly stable, indicating short‐term economic resilience, with stronger investment growth in Niger. Sectoral effects vary, extractive and heavy industries expand in Niger, textiles and light manufacturing grow in Burkina Faso and Mali, while transport, livestock, and some service sectors contract. These findings highlight the need for targeted policies to support structural adjustment, strengthen intra‐AES trade, diversify external partnerships, modernize key sectors, and facilitate labor market transitions.

Date: 2026
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