Economics at your fingertips  

Using a functional approach to test trending volatility in the price of Mexican and international agricultural products

Santiago Guerrero, Gerardo Hernández†del†Valle and Miriam Juárez†Torres

Agricultural Economics, 2017, vol. 48, issue 1, 3-13

Abstract: In this article, we extend the traditional GARCH(1,1) model by including a functional trend term in the conditional volatility of a time series. We derive the main properties of the model and apply it to all agricultural commodities in the Mexican CPI basket, as well as to the international prices of maize, wheat, swine, poultry, and beef products for three different time periods that implied changes in price regulations and behavior: before the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA; 1987–1993), post†NAFTA (1994–2005), and commodity supercycle (2006–2014). The proposed model seems to adequately fit the volatility process and, according to heteroscedasticity tests, also outperforms the ARCH(1) and GARCH(1,1) models, some of the most popular approaches used in the literature to analyze price volatility. Our results show that, consistent with anecdotal evidence, price volatility trends increased from the period 1987–1993 to 1994–2005. From 1994–2005 to 2006–2014, trends decreased but the persistence of volatility increased for most products, especially for international commodities. In addition, we identify some agricultural products such as avocado, beans, and chicken that, due to their increasing price volatility trends in the 2006–2014 period, may present a risk for food inflation in the short run.

Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=0169-5150

Access Statistics for this article

Agricultural Economics is currently edited by W.A. Masters and G.E. Shively

More articles in Agricultural Economics from International Association of Agricultural Economists Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().

Page updated 2019-02-23
Handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:48:y:2017:i:1:p:3-13