Determination of the international maize price: What is the growing role of Brazil and Ukraine?

Carlos Arnade and Linwood Hoffman

Agricultural Economics, 2019, vol. 50, issue 6, 735-747

Abstract: This paper examines the relationships among maize prices for four countries to determine if newly emerging exporters, Brazil and Ukraine, influence the international price of maize. Our work focuses on each market's participation in the price discovery process rather than trying to determine a price leader. We find that the United States plays the largest role in price discovery, followed by Argentina, Brazil, and Ukraine. We also search for export thresholds and find that Ukraine's contribution to price discovery rises slightly when an export threshold of 2.3 million tons is reached. No export thresholds were found for Brazil. Export thresholds for Argentina were found but only have a minor impact on price relationships. We also found that price relationships vary considerably across seasons of the year.

Date: 2019
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