Incorporating risk in the economic analysis of agronomic trials: fertilizer use on barley in Syria

Ahmed Mazid and Elizabeth Bailey

Agricultural Economics, 1992, vol. 7, issue 2, 167-184

Abstract: In the drier areas of Syria yields of barley, the principal crop, are low. Due to the variability in rainfall, fertilizer use is perceived as risky. Barley‐fertilizer trials have been conducted on farmer's fields over a period of four years to investigate whether the large yield response to fertilizer observed on research sites could be achieved under farmers' conditions. Data were pooled across years and sites and response functions estimated. Simple optimization analysis shows that economic optimum fertilizer rates vary considerably with rainfall and relative prices. Historical rainfall data are combined with the estimated response functions, and stochastic dominance analysis is used to compare the riskiness of fertilizer treatments in terms of net benefits and benefit‐cost ratios. Results show that, given the estimated expected rainfall in barley producing areas, fertilizer use, especially at low levels, may not be as risky as has been believed. Extensions of the methodology to include other environmental variables, or to target recommendations, are discussed.

Date: 1992
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1574-0862.1992.tb00212.x

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:agecon:v:7:y:1992:i:2:p:167-184

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=0169-5150

Access Statistics for this article

Agricultural Economics is currently edited by W.A. Masters and G.E. Shively

More articles in Agricultural Economics from International Association of Agricultural Economists Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().