Thirty‐year assessment of Asian Development Bank's forecasts

Yoichi Tsuchiya

Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, 2021, vol. 35, issue 2, 18-40

Abstract: This study assesses the performance of the forecasts of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) for 45 countries between 1989 and 2019 with the following results: first, forecast accuracy and bias vary among countries and across variables; second, the Asian currency and global financial crises adversely affected the GDP and inflation forecast accuracy, whereas there were no such impacts on the current account forecast accuracy; third, the ADB's forecasts are broadly unbiased; fourth, inflation forecasts are efficient but the GDP and current account forecasts are not; finally, unbiasedness is broadly robust for the countries' regions. These results suggest that the ADB plays a grounding economic role in providing a reliable economic outlook for policymakers and businesses world wide.

Date: 2021
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https://doi.org/10.1111/apel.12333

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