How Much Will China Save? Projecting China's National Savings Through 2040

Shiyu Li, Laurence Kotlikoff, Shuanglin Lin, Wing Thye Woo and Yunyun Jiang

Asian Economic Journal, 2016, vol. 30, issue 3, 255-274

Abstract: This paper projects China's national savings through 2040 based on China's national account data, demographic data, and data on rural and urban life-cycle income and consumption. Our baseline projections show that China's national saving in 2040 will be 16 times the current national saving. The annual growth rate of wealth will decline from 16.3 percent in 2012 to 9.5 percent in 2040. Lowering the growth rate of wealth accumulation to the current rate of return to wealth increases consumption through 2040; lowering the growth rate of wealth further may increase consumption more in the short run, but less in the long run.

Date: 2016
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