China's Recent Economic Performance and Future Prospects*

Dwight Perkins

Asian Economic Policy Review, 2006, vol. 1, issue 1, 15-40

Abstract: Our forecast of China's economic future is based primarily on the supply side growth accounting model. The life cycle model of household saving provides us with the most plausible explanation for a continued high rate of savings and investment. China's labor force will soon stop growing, but migration out of agriculture should have little impact on farm output while providing a steady stream of labor to the modern more productive sectors. There is also room for rapid expansion of human capital. Maintaining high productivity growth will depend primarily on strengthening currently weak institutions, notably the financial sector and, more importantly, the legal system.

Date: 2006
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https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1748-3131.2006.00002.x

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Asian Economic Policy Review is currently edited by Takatoshi Ito, Akira Kojima, Colin McKenzie and Shujiro Urata

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