Projection of fossil fuel demands in Vietnam to 2050 and climate change implications

Quang Minh Tran

Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, 2019, vol. 6, issue 2, 208-221

Abstract: Over the past decade, Vietnam has emerged as one of the world's fastest growing economies. Fossil fuel use, which is a dominant energy source and vital for economic growth, have been increasing considerably. Undoubtedly, the projection of fossil fuel demand is essential for a better understanding of energy needs, fuel mix, and Vietnam's strategic development. This paper provides an outlook for coal, oil, and gas demand in Vietnam to 2050. The projection is based on the calibrated results from a hybrid model (that combines a GTAP‐ R version for resources, and a micro simulation approach) and an energy database. Under the baseline scenario (business as usual), from 2018 to 2050, the demand for coal, oil products, and gas are expected to increase by a factor of 2.47‐fold, 2.14‐fold, and 1.67‐fold, respectively. Emissions are also projected to increase. Because fossil fuels are the dominant source of carbon emissions in Vietnam, it follows, going forward, that an effective fuel‐mix strategy that encourages the development of renewables and energy efficiency is essential.

Date: 2019
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1002/app5.274

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:asiaps:v:6:y:2019:i:2:p:208-221

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=2050-2680

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies from Wiley Blackwell
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().