No, Business Cycles Are Not All Alike: The United States and Australia Compared

Roger J Bowden and Vance Martin

Australian Economic Papers, 1992, vol. 31, issue 59, 385-98

Abstract: From the statistical point of view, a business cycle may be characterized in terms of a common latent structure assigned to the various indicator series. This may be detected by a component analysis of the spectral density matrix and established as a reference cycle in the time domain. Using this theory, we compare the Australian and United States postwar economies and find that whereas the United States has a well defined business cycle, the Australian cycle is more diffuse, with a lack of coherence among important indicators. Such divergences can be regarded as stylistic facts that warrant causal explanation. Copyright 1992 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd/University of Adelaide and Flinders University of South Australia

Date: 1992
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