Exploring the Mediating Mechanism of Industrial Structure Adjustment in Economic Growth and Electricity Consumption: Evidence From China

Ming Meng, Xinxin Li and Tingting Pang

Australian Economic Papers, 2026, vol. 65, issue 1, 72-82

Abstract: Using a hierarchical regression model and China's provincial panel data from 2001 to 2022, this paper investigates the mediating mechanism of industrial structure adjustment in the relationship between economic growth and electricity consumption. Findings reveal a positive effect of economic growth on electricity consumption, with electricity consumption increasing by 0.937% for every 1% increase in real gross domestic product (GDP). Economic growth also plays a crucial role in adjusting and upgrading industrial structure, which drives local industries toward high‐value chains. Furthermore, this study identified negative mediating effects of industrial structure adjustment on electricity consumption, with a total effect size of −0.085%. Specifically, the mediating effects of rationalization, upgrading, and softening of industrial structure are −0.018%, −0.021%, and −0.046%, respectively. Finally, heterogeneity analysis indicates that the negative effect of industrial structure adjustment is stronger in the central and western regions. In light of these findings, this study offers policy implications to achieve green and low‐carbon energy transition and high‐quality economic growth.

Date: 2026
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