EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

How Uncertain Are Long-Run Fiscal Projections? Non-Parametric Stochastic Modelling for New Zealand

Christopher Ball, John Creedy and Grant Scobie ()

Australian Economic Review, 2016, vol. 49, issue 1, 59-76

Abstract: type="main" xml:lang="en">

This article introduces uncertainty into a fiscal projection model which incorporates population ageing along with a number of feedback effects. A new non-parametric method of producing stochastic projections is explored. This allows for the complex nature of the observed joint distributions of relevant variables and their time paths. Stochastic projections of a range of policy responses are produced, allowing for uncertainty regarding the world interest rate, productivity growth and the growth rates of two components of per capita government expenditure. The probability of exceeding a given debt ratio in each projection year, using a particular tax or expenditure policy, can then be evaluated. Examples of tax policies designed to achieve a target debt ratio are examined. Policy implications are briefly discussed.

Date: 2016
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/ (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:ausecr:v:49:y:2016:i:1:p:59-76

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=0004-9018

Access Statistics for this article

Australian Economic Review is currently edited by Ross Williams, Ian McDonald and Mark Wooden

More articles in Australian Economic Review from The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().

 
Page updated 2021-07-08
Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecr:v:49:y:2016:i:1:p:59-76