Sectoral Employment Dynamics in Australia and the COVID‐19 Pandemic

Heather Anderson, Giovanni Caggiano, Farshid Vahid and Benjamin Wong

Australian Economic Review, 2020, vol. 53, issue 3, 402-414

Abstract: We develop a multivariate time series model of employment in 19 sectors for Australia. We use this model to determine the long‐run effect of a 1% increase in economic activity in any chosen sector on aggregate employment. Our findings point to manufacturing and construction sectors as those that generate the largest positive spillovers for the aggregate economy. Moreover, we provide an interactive web‐based app that produces our model's forecasts based on any user‐specified scenario. As the restrictions associated with the COVID‐19 pandemic evolve, the sectoral employment multipliers together with these interactive tools will provide useful information for policymakers.

Date: 2020
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