On the Bayesian Estimation of a Closed Population Size in the Presence of Heterogeneity and Model Uncertainty

R. King and S. P. Brooks

Biometrics, 2008, vol. 64, issue 3, 816-824

Abstract: Summary We consider the estimation of the size of a closed population, often of interest for wild animal populations, using a capture–recapture study. The estimate of the total population size can be very sensitive to the choice of model used to fit to the data. We consider a Bayesian approach, in which we consider all eight plausible models initially described by Otis et al. (1978, Wildlife Monographs62, 1–135) within a single framework, including models containing an individual heterogeneity component. We show how we are able to obtain a model‐averaged estimate of the total population, incorporating both parameter and model uncertainty. To illustrate the methodology we initially perform a simulation study and analyze two datasets where the population size is known, before considering a real example relating to a population of dolphins off northeast Scotland.

Date: 2008
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