EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Multivariate Markov Switching Common Factor Models for the UK

Terence C. Mills and Ping Wang

Bulletin of Economic Research, 2003, vol. 55, issue 2, 177-193

Abstract: We estimate a model that incorporates two key features of business cycles, comovement among economic variables and switching between regimes of boom and slump, to quarterly UK data for the last four decades. A common factor, interpreted as a composite indicator of coincident variables, and estimates of turning points from one regime to the other, are extracted from the data by using the Kalman filter and maximum likelihood estimation. Both comovement and regime switching are found to be important features of the UK business cycle. The composite indicator produces a sensible representation of the cycle and the estimated turning points agree fairly well with independently determined chronologies. These estimates are sharper than those produced by a univariate Markov switching model of GDP alone. A fairly typical stylized fact of business cycles is confirmed by this model – recessions are steeper and shorter than recoveries.

Date: 2003
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8586.00168

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:buecrs:v:55:y:2003:i:2:p:177-193

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=0307-3378

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Bulletin of Economic Research from Wiley Blackwell
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().

 
Page updated 2025-03-19
Handle: RePEc:bla:buecrs:v:55:y:2003:i:2:p:177-193