Scenario Analysis of Chinese Passenger Vehicle Growth

Peter H. Kobos, Jon D. Erickson and Thomas E. Drennen

Contemporary Economic Policy, 2003, vol. 21, issue 2, 200-217

Abstract: This article reports on a simulation and scenario analysis of Chinese passenger vehicle growth and resulting energy demand and CO2 emissions. The model includes provincial level logistic growth functions with saturation levels representative of neighboring Asian economies, income growth measured in international dollars, and both estimated and literature‐based income elasticities. Scenarios explore variation in key parameters, including income and population growth rates, elasticity income ranges, fuel economy, and vehicle saturation. Countrywide base case results estimate growth from 4.22 to 54.33 passenger vehicles per thousand people from 1995 to 2025. Resulting passenger vehicle oil demands and CO2 emissions increase nearly 17‐fold.

Date: 2003
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