HOUSING MARKETS AND THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS: THE COMPLEX DYNAMICS OF A CREDIT SHOCK

Arthur Grimes and Sean Hyland

Contemporary Economic Policy, 2015, vol. 33, issue 2, 315-333

Abstract: type="main" xml:id="coep12070-abs-0001"> We analyze the multiple channels of influence that global financial crisis-induced credit restrictions had on New Zealand's subnational housing markets. The dynamics caused by the credit shock are compared to those caused by a migration shock, a more common form of housing shock in New Zealand. We focus on the impacts on two outcome variables, house prices and housing supply, within a structural time series model of regional housing markets. Both shocks cause substantial and prolonged cyclical adjustments in each variable. Similar cyclical dynamics could complicate the conduct of macroprudential policies designed to affect bank credit allocation. (JEL E32, E44, R21)

Date: 2015
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