FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN MEXICO, CRIME, AND ECONOMIC FORCES

Rene Cabral (), André Varella Mollick and Eduardo Saucedo

Contemporary Economic Policy, 2019, vol. 37, issue 1, 68-85

Abstract: This paper re‐examines inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the 32 subnational Mexican states based on quarterly data from 2005 to 2015, which includes rising drug‐related crimes. We estimate our models using panel data methods by type of crime, state‐level indicators (real wages and electricity consumption), macroeconomic forces (the real exchange rate and interest rate), and a dummy variable for the financial crisis of 2008–2009. We employ a flexible lag‐length method and find that homicides and thefts have negative and statistically significant effects on FDI, while other crimes have no effects. Subsample work suggests higher negative effects in the most violent states. (JEL F15, F21, F23, F36)

Date: 2019
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