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THE BEHAVIOR OF CASINO GAMING REVENUE OVER THE BUSINESS CYCLE CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE MEASURES OF “INCOME”

Thomas A. Garrett and Mark Nichols

Contemporary Economic Policy, 2019, vol. 37, issue 2, 274-296

Abstract: Reasons exist for believing that casino gaming revenue does not respond equally to all sources of income over the business cycle. We examine the growth and variability of casino revenue resulting from the growth and variability in different sources of income. We find that casino revenue behaves quite differently in response to short‐run and long‐run variation in each income source, thus revealing that the common use of personal income masks underlying drivers of each state's business cycle. Our results have implications for revenue forecasting models, research on the growth and variability of tax bases in general, and public policy. (JEL H72, H79, L83)

Date: 2019
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