PARTIALLY DISAGGREGATED HOUSEHOLD‐LEVEL DEBT SERVICE RATIOS: CONSTRUCTION, VALIDATION, AND RELATIONSHIP TO BANKRUPTCY RATES

Joel Elvery and Mark Schweitzer

Contemporary Economic Policy, 2020, vol. 38, issue 1, 166-187

Abstract: Using individual‐level debt payments data from a credit bureau, we estimate debt service ratios by debt type for the United States. While highly correlated with the Board of Governors' national debt service ratio, we identify some required payments categories that vary substantively from the aggregate assumptions used in the Board's published data series. Estimating novel state and metropolitan statistical area (MSA)‐level debt service ratios, we show that debt service ratios rose dramatically during the 2000s housing boom in several of the most impacted states and MSAs. Our state‐level debt service ratios are shown to be useful in predicting state bankruptcy rates. (JEL D14, C8, E50)

Date: 2020
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https://doi.org/10.1111/coep.12434

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