Financial conditions and the well‐being of the real estate sector—A bottom‐up default analysis on five ASEAN economies

Wei Sun and Matthew S. Yiu

Contemporary Economic Policy, 2023, vol. 41, issue 1, 41-60

Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of financial conditions, for example, cross‐border capital flows, interest rates and foreign exchange rates, on the well‐being of the real estate developers in five Association of Southeast Asian Nations economies. The study uses a Bottom‐up Default Analysis model to stress test their creditworthiness by reproducing the financial shocks during the global financial crisis, taper tantrum, and the U.S.‐China trade war and COVID‐19 pandemic. The median developers remain sound under the prescribed adversities. The performance is underpinned by their strong fundamentals and a conducive mix of monetary, foreign exchange, and open capital account policies by national authorities.

Date: 2023
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