SEQUENTIAL JUDGMENT EFFECTS IN THE WORKPLACE: EVIDENCE FROM THE NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION

Paul Gift

Economic Inquiry, 2015, vol. 53, issue 2, 1259-1274

Abstract: type="main" xml:id="ecin12186-abs-0001"> This study investigates the impact of past performance evaluations on future decisions involving judgment. I analyze the decisions of highly skilled and highly monitored referees regarding offensive fouls and violations in the National Basketball Association. After testing for equilibrium adjustments in player behavior, findings support a hypothesis of increased referee scrutiny on one team following a potentially questionable call on the opposing team. Results are inconclusive for subsequent changes in scrutiny toward the original violating team. The analysis provides a nonexperimental test of sequential bias on elite employees working under strict performance standards, and suggests a likely role for sequential judgment effects in other areas of economic activity. ( JEL D03, L83, J44, M59)

Date: 2015
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