DISSECTING THE MONTY HALL ANOMALY

Duncan James, Daniel Friedman, Christina Louie and Taylor O'Meara

Economic Inquiry, 2018, vol. 56, issue 3, 1817-1826

Abstract: We assess competing explanations of irrational behavior in the Monty Hall problem by creating new variants of the problem. Some variants employ a feature that automates the merging of probabilities, thus rendering transparent the probabilistic advantage of the rational choice. That feature also enables systematic variation in informational asymmetry, and in ordering of actions. Data from 77 subjects, each of whom makes 30 binary decisions, indicate that automated merging raises the fraction of rational choices from around 40% to over 80%. Other features examined have much less impact, indicating the importance of a Bayesian updating failure. (JEL C91, D02, D81, D83)

Date: 2018
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https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12533

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Working Paper: DISSECTING THE MONTY HALL ANOMALY (2018)
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