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INSTITUTIONS, HOUSEHOLD CREDIT COMPOSITION, AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE

Berrak Bahadir and Neven Valev

Economic Inquiry, 2020, vol. 58, issue 3, 1401-1413

Abstract: We show that the negative effect of household credit growth on subsequent economic growth documented in the recent literature is not the same across countries. The effect is stronger in countries with weak institutions where the fraction of consumer credit in total household credit is greater. That is an important nuance as consumer credit is a sizable part of household credit in many emerging markets and its rapid buildup should be observed with the same caution as a rapid buildup in housing credit. (JEL G21, E32, E44)

Date: 2020
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