The impact of US tariffs against China on US imports: Evidence for trade diversion?

Simone Cigna, Philipp Meinen, Patrick Schulte and Nils Steinhoff

Economic Inquiry, 2022, vol. 60, issue 1, 162-173

Abstract: We provide evidence on the existence of short‐run trade diversion effects towards third countries as a consequence of tariff shocks. We exploit sudden policy changes in the context of the trade dispute between the United States and China in 2018. Based on a data set covering monthly product‐level information on US imports from 30 countries for the period 2016 until May 2019, we employ a difference‐in‐differences estimation framework. Doing so, we can show a strong negative direct effect of US tariffs on US imports from China, but do not find evidence for significant short‐run trade diversion effects towards third countries.

Date: 2022
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https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.13043

Related works:
Working Paper: The impact of US tariffs against China on US imports: evidence for trade diversion? (2020)
Working Paper: The impact of US tariffs against China on US imports: Evidence for trade diversion? (2019)
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