Fiscal consolidation plans with underground economy

Maria Ferrara, Cristiana Fiorelli, Elisabetta Marzano and Monica Varlese

Economic Inquiry, 2025, vol. 63, issue 1, 144-159

Abstract: Fiscal consolidation literature often neglects that there are economies characterized by sizable underground sectors, with their mechanisms of response to fiscal policy shocks. Therefore, reliable analyses of fiscal consolidation plans call for the decomposition of Gross Domestic Product in its regular and hidden components. We investigate fiscal consolidation effects in the context of tax evasion for the Italian economy. Results show that a temporary cut in public spending associated with a permanent drop in tax rate yet entails tax evasion reduction. The main underlying mechanism is the strong responsiveness of the underground sector, implying a reallocation of resources toward the regular sector.

Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:63:y:2025:i:1:p:144-159

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