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Optimal lockdowns under constraints

Jihad C. Dagher and Christian Parkinson

Economic Inquiry, 2025, vol. 63, issue 2, 523-544

Abstract: We present a systematic examination of the impact of frictions on optimal pandemic response, bridging the significant gap between policy recommendations and implementation. We focus in particular on constraints in testing delivery and in lockdown efficacy in the context of a canonical pandemic model. The latter is modified for a more faithful representation of lockdowns. The paper sheds light on nuanced, and sometimes counter‐intuitive, relationships. It rationalizes key but divergent findings in the literature on the extent of substitution and complementarity between lockdowns and testing. It also demonstrates remarkable robustness in lockdown policy to changes in its efficiency.

Date: 2025
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https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.13265

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