Interest Rates, Stock Returns and Credit Spreads: Evidence from German Eurobonds

Niklas Wagner, Warren Hogan and Jonathan Batten

Economic Notes, 2005, vol. 34, issue 1, 35-50

Abstract: We investigate daily variations in credit spreads on investment‐grade Deutschemark‐denominated Eurobonds during the challenging 1994–1998 period. Empirical results from a Longstaff and Schwartz (1995) two‐factor regression, extended for correlated spread changes and heteroskedasticity, indicate strong persistence in spread changes. Consistent with theory and previous findings, changes in spreads are significantly negatively related to the term‐structure level while, contrary to theory, the proxy for asset value does not yield a significant negative contribution. We even find a significant positive relation for Eurobonds with long maturity. Tentative interpretations are portfolio‐rebalancing activities or differing risk factor sensitivities on short‐ vs. long‐maturity bonds.

Date: 2005
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