Housing prices, volatility, and fundamental value

Gian Maria Tomat

Economic Notes, 2021, vol. 50, issue 3

Abstract: Asset pricing theories imply the existence of a long run relation between real housing prices and rents. The long run relation predicts, that in each time period real housing prices should be equal to the expected present discounted value of subsequent real rents. We use the annual time series for the 1991–2016 period in Italy as evidence regarding the present discounted value relation. Considering the stochastic properties of the aggregate time series, cointegration tests do not deliver conclusive results. In a dynamic vector autoregression model, real housing prices are shown to properly anticipate forthcoming real rents, though they exhibit excess volatility. In the sample period, movements of housing prices relatively to the long run relation predict successive real returns. While rational speculative bubbles might produce excess volatility of housing prices, other explanations are required for the predictability of real housing returns.

Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1111/ecno.12191

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:ecnote:v:50:y:2021:i:3:n:e12191

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=0391-5026

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Economic Notes from Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().