The Trade‐off Interpretation of Phillips’s Dynamic Stabilization Exercise

Robert Leeson

Economica, 1997, vol. 64, issue 253, 155-171

Abstract: This paper, which examines Phillips’s famous curve, is based on Phillips’s private papers, and the London School of Economics Methodology, Measurement and Testing Seminar records (sources previously thought to be lost). These sources, plus Phillips’s theoretical work, suggest that the equilibrium ‘menu of choice’ is a misinterpretation of Phillips’s dynamic stabilization exercise. Phillips had a clearly articulated role for inflationary expectations in his model, and had no toleration for the notion that ongoing inflation could purchase sustainable reductions in the rate of unemployment. Evidence is cited which indicates that Milton Friedman was profoundly influenced by Phillips’s analysis of inflationary expectations.

Date: 1997
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