Modelling the Transition from School and the Demand for Training in the United Kingdom

Martyn Andrews and Steve Bradley

Economica, 1997, vol. 64, issue 255, 387-413

Abstract: This paper analyses the choices made by school leavers and the demand for training in the youth labour market. Using a large cross‐section database on all school leavers in Lancashire in 1991, we model, using a multinomial logit, their first destination six months after the end of compulsory schooling. We model six choices/outcomes: non‐vocational continuing education, vocational continuing education, youth training, employment with on‐the‐job training, employment with general‐skills training, and unemployment. Our results show that the first destination from school is affected by a range of individual, school and local labour market variables. In addition to academic ability, we report three effects that are not well known: a young person is more likely to leave school the bigger the school, the lower its academic performance, and the lower his or her expected lifetime earn‐ings.

Date: 1997
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