Modelling Business Cycle Movements in the UK Economy

Paul W. Simpson, Denise Osborn and Marianne Sensier ()

Economica, 2001, vol. 68, issue 270, 243-267

Abstract: This paper models the phases of the UK business cycle using GDP data with a time‐varying transition probabilities (TVTP) Markov‐switching regime model and exogenous leading indicator variables. Single indicators in linear models are compared with the TVTP framework, with logistic and exponential functions used in the latter. The Markov‐switching models capture the major recessions of the sample, but the use of leading indicators through the TVTP framework can improve this regime recognition. Finally, a forecast comparison shows that the TVTP models perform relatively well in predicting during the 1990s, particularly when nominal interest rates are used to generate the regime‐switching probabilities.

Date: 2001
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (15)

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0335.00244

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:econom:v:68:y:2001:i:270:p:243-267

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=0013-0427

Access Statistics for this article

Economica is currently edited by Frank Cowell, Tore Ellingsen and Alan Manning

More articles in Economica from London School of Economics and Political Science Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().