The Allocation of Talent over the Business Cycle and its Long-term Effect on Sectoral Productivity

Michael J. Böhm and Martin Watzinger

Economica, 2015, vol. 82, issue 328, 892-911

Abstract: type="main" xml:id="ecca12143-abs-0001">

It is well documented that graduates enter different occupations in recessions than in booms. In our paper, we examine the impact of the resulting change in the allocation of talent for long-term productivity and output in a sector. In a setting where output can be quantitatively and qualitatively measured, we find evidence that talent flows to stable sectors in recessions and to cyclical sectors in booms: economists starting or graduating from their PhD in a recession are significantly more productive in academia over the long term than economists starting or graduating in a boom.

Date: 2015
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