Inflation Targets and the Zero Lower Bound in a Behavioural Macroeconomic Model
Paul De Grauwe and
Economica, 2019, vol. 86, issue 342, 262-299
We analyse the relationship between the level of the inflation target and the zero lower bound imposed on the nominal interest rate in the framework of a behavioural New‐Keynesian macroeconomic model in which agents, experiencing cognitive limitations, use adaptive learning forecasting rules. The model produces endogenous waves of optimism and pessimism (animal spirits) that lead to non‐normal distributions of the output gap. We find that when the inflation target is too close to zero, the economy can get gripped by ‘chronic pessimism’ that leads to a dominance of negative output gaps and recessions, and in turn feeds back on expectations producing long waves of pessimism. Low inflation targets create the risk of persistence of recessions and low growth. In conclusion, our framework suggests that the 2% inflation target, now pursued by many central banks, is too low.
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:econom:v:86:y:2019:i:342:p:262-299
Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=0013-0427
Access Statistics for this article
Economica is currently edited by Frank Cowell, Tore Ellingsen and Alan Manning
More articles in Economica from London School of Economics and Political Science Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().