 Trend Fundamentals and Exchange Rate DynamicsFlorian Huber and Daniel Kaufmann Economica, 2020, vol. 87, issue 348, 1016-1036 Abstract: We estimate a multivariate unobserved components stochastic volatility model to explain the dynamics of a panel of six exchange rates against the US dollar. The empirical model is based on the assumption that two countries’ monetary policy strategies may be well described by Taylor rules with a time‐varying inflation target, a time‐varying natural rate of unemployment, and interest rate smoothing. Compared to the existing literature, our model simultaneously provides estimates of the latent components included in a typical Taylor rule specification and the model‐based real exchange rate. Our estimates closely track major movements along with important time series properties of real and nominal exchange rates across all currencies considered, outperforming a benchmark model that does not account for changes in trend inflation and trend unemployment. More precisely, the proposed approach improves on competing models in tracking the actual evolution of the real exchange rate in terms of simple correlations while it appreciably improves on simpler competitors in terms of matching the persistence of the real exchange rate. Date: 2020 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:econom:v:87:y:2020:i:348:p:1016-1036 Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from Access Statistics for this article Economica is currently edited by Frank Cowell, Tore Ellingsen and Alan Manning More articles in Economica from London School of Economics and Political Science Contact information at EDIRC. |
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