Economic and financial integration, capital controls, and risk sharing

Michael Donadelli and Ivan Gufler

Economica, 2024, vol. 91, issue 364, 1482-1520

Abstract: We analyse economic (EI) and financial (FI) integration, and their effects on international consumption risk sharing (RS) across 40 countries, including 21 developed (DEV) and 19 emerging (EM) markets, from 1995 to 2019. Utilizing the metric for EI and FI of Akbari et al. (2020, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 55, 2270–303), and various RS proxies, we find that increasing EI reduces RS in EM, while FI enhances it. Conversely, there is no evidence that EI or FI influences RS in DEV, contradicting theoretical predictions from international business cycle models. These results remain robust when controlling for trade and financial openness and capital flow restrictions. Additionally, we investigate the direct influence of capital controls on market integration. Relaxing equity inflow controls significantly enhances market integration, specifically boosting EI in DEV, and FI in EM. In contrast, equity outflow restrictions and controls on other asset categories do not significantly impact market integration. Our findings challenge the idea that simply removing legal restrictions on international capital flows is sufficient or necessary to achieve greater market integration and improved RS. This underscores the perspective that adjustments in capital controls alone may not ensure macro‐financial stability.

Date: 2024
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