Natural Resource Diversity and Democracy*

Mike Smart

Economic Papers, 2009, vol. 28, issue 4, 366-375

Abstract: The well‐known link between oil and autocracy is an example of a more general phenomenon. I introduce a non‐commodity‐specific predictor of autocracy based on the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index of a country’s natural resource exports. It performs no worse than the export share of oil, and better than the export share of primary commodities in explaining observed levels of democratisation. Empirical evidence is presented for a causal chain from diversity of natural resources and educational attainment to democratisation, and from democratisation to per capita GDP.

Date: 2009
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https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1759-3441.2010.00046.x

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