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Searching for the Downsian Voter with a Simple Structural Model

Darren Grant ()

Economics and Politics, 1998, vol. 10, issue 2, 107-126

Abstract: Studies of voter turnout consistently find that turnout responds to the closeness of the election, yet it is widely claimed that the probability of casting the deciding vote is too minute to be of consequence. We provide evidence on this puzzle by deriving a structural rational voting model in the form of a relatively simple regression equation, and fitting it to data from a large sample of US congressional elections.

Date: 1998
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